Guahan has been down this road before—the buildup followed by the let down and then it starts all over again. It is part of the political economy of Guam. This is the marriage between political policy and economic activity. our island’s political economy is essentially organized around military spending, its promotion and its protection. The political leadership and economic players of the island band together to present a view of the economy which crowds out other possibilities under the logic that there are none. There is no real path to economic self-sufficiency.
They also crowd out criticisms of the trajectory of economic activity, especially when its military features are highlighted along a range of options. In other words, if you critique the military buildup, the response is quick and unforgiving—ranging from being unappreciative of the military, naive about real threats to peace to being unpatriotic, even disloyal. These are the triple threats of counter arguments which keep critiques or even analysis of the military buildup at bay.
It is the 360-degree shield against incoming critical missiles.
I was once at a ceremony at Andersen Air Force Base. It is common for many to proclaim that the noise of jets taking on and off is really not discordant, but rather the sound of freedom. In this instance, one local military supporter proclaimed exactly that—another local economy player (with large contracts) chimed in with “kaching, kaching.”
The political economy of Guam tells us that we only have two options available to us—tourism and military spending. The political economy of Guam informs us that these are threatened by discussions which seek to limit foreign labor, raise the minimum wage or support union activities amongst workers. The economy is too important to let worker advocates take center stage. We seek exemptions from foreign labor requirements to bring in more and exemptions from federal labor standards to pay our professional workers less.
If we express concern about being threatened with destruction, then we are told that this is the price we pay for being loyal Americans. If we seek to reduce foreign labor, we are told that this is only a temporary measure which dates back almost 80 years. If we worry about the consequences of a large and sudden military increase in the island, we are told that it will work itself out one way or another.
But we are at the edge of this sudden surge which really isn’t so sudden after all. This was discussed as part of a large-scale agreement back as far as 2009 when the Marines were to be moved from Okinawa pursuant to the Guam agreement with Japan and the United States as signatories. Added to that is the Chinese missile threat, the North Korean nuclear menace, and the prospect of war over Taiwan and we get the activities which are now arrayed before us; base construction and augmentation; offensive missile batteries and an anticipated 40% growth of the military population over the next 13 years.
The centerpiece of this is the intense interest and planning for a missile defense system for the island—360 degrees or so we are told. This is an absolute priority for the Indo-Pacific theatre in order to ensure the capacity of the island to respond to a future attack. We are told that it is kind of an “Iron Dome” but in reality, it isn’t. Most scientists and many analysts have expressed concerns that this will not work as planned, but perhaps what is really meant is that it will not work as advertised. But it will work as planned if we knew what the plan actually was.
The 360-degree shield will not protect the island from a missile attack, but it will buy enough time for a counter strike from Guam-based military assets. perhaps it will give the island an additional 30-60 minutes. If that is the plan, then the system will fulfill its purpose. In the prelude, assets can be dispersed to other areas like Tinian, Yap, and maybe even Palau.
I asked a two-star army general about this during last year’s scoping meetings. He said that the planned additional missile defense batteries (15 or 21) will also put the Army personnel at risk. This was in response to the question I asked about the risks that the Guam community will face in such an attack. I told him that the Army personnel signed up for that risk. I don’t think the Guam community did.
In a conversation about the political status and power of Guam with some missile defense experts and analysts, one of them blurted out that Guam’s lack of political representation in Washington, D.C. actually makes the case for more than just saying there is no consent of the governed in laws or policies which applies to all territories. This powerlessness is recognized as a violation of the core American principle of consent of the governed. This is best understood in the original phrase which animated the American Revolution—no taxation without representation. In Guam’s case, the statement “annihilation without representation” might be most appropriate.
I want to make sure that any statement, even challenging ones here today, are made with the most profound respect for people in uniform. I honor the sacrifices that they make on behalf of security for the United States and its interests around the world. But it is a human institution in which mistakes can and do happen; it is also an intense endeavor that self-justifies almost all of its activities under the logic of military security against which we are almost powerless to argue against. The Guam buildup has attracted attention by military planners, military contractors, and strategic planners who suddenly see new relevance and dollars for their projects which have been placed on the backburner by the Pentagon. This is the full blossoming of the military industrial complex at work- the national political economy at its most active.
The effects of the Guam buildup are many and disruptive to our economy and our society. We have seen the disruption of cultural sites, the further endangering of endangered species and a revamping of firing range plans which will disrupt utilizing
The fishing grounds off the coast of Litekyan or Ritidian. Disruption and disturbance is one thing.
But altering the course of the lives of our young people is quite another. The housing situation appears to be totally in disarray. The desire to create an environment of strategic balance and military security has exacerbated a vast amount of housing insecurity on Guam. According to the 2019 Guam Housing Study and Needs Assessment of 31,000 residences, the situation with local families appears to be beyond crisis proportions. Today, if a family of four with a median family income of $74,000 is looking for a 3-bedroom home, the housing cost (with utilities) will be $3,000 monthly or 47% (nearly half) of the income. The median family income includes more than one wage earner. The end result is overcrowding which means families are doubling up, tripling up, and living in multigenerational residences at a rate that is nearly tripled the average in the United States. Overcrowding is estimated to be almost double that of Hawaii’s. Homelessness is constant and is now family based.
The consequences to the quality of family life, educational achievement, mental and physical health are significant.
Add to this the speculation generated by substantial subsidies for cost-based reimbursements to service members which with utilities could rise to $3,500. Some returning service members get the benefits for one location while purchasing another. Some of us are encouraged by advertisements to purchase homes for the expressed purpose of tapping onto this market.
In the meantime, there doesn’t appear to be large scale public housing plans. In the 2024 NDAA, there is a requirement for the secretary of defense to report on the housing situation in Guam for military personnel by December 1, 2024. An earlier provision had been watered down. It called for DoD to contract with a federally funded research organization to conduct an independent assessment of the housing situation in Guam including an assessment of mitigating local conditions.” From independent study to a Congressional Report. The secretary of the Navy has also been given wide latitude to come up with plans for civilian employees associated with the renewed ship repair facility. This is the state of play for a housing situation that attracted far less attention than missile defense systems. It has finally made it into the NDADD, albeit in a less than satisfying way after over a decade of planning the buildup.
Housing insecurity and cultural resource insecurity could be justified as the price we in Guam are supposed to pay for the general security of the country and the region. But if that is really the case, wouldn’t it be prudent to also begin planning for shelters to be built so that some of us can survive the initial and subsequent attacks by a Chinese assault. Just like housing insecurity, there is little planning for shelters. Add to this situation shelter insecurity.
All of this presents a very awkward situation which demands more than conversations or conferences with military commanders who are stationed here in Guam. It demands far reaching strategies to contemplate alternative economic opportunities and the development of mechanisms to get returns to Guam that are commensurate with its value to the overall strategic picture. It demands an NDAA which doesn’t get sweetened with projects, but rather gets juiced with local authority. I have yet to see any of that on the horizon.
Of course, most elected officials will say we will exert leverage with the federal government in order to get the desired result, whether it is housing assistance, economic planning, a hospital, maybe even shelters. But exercising leverage implies that at some point you are going to withhold agreement and resist some plans going forward. No one has done that with the military in decades. and it was only successful in blocking the development of an ammunition wharf near Sella Bay 50 years ago with the late Paul Bordallo.
The question is do we understand how this can happen in the 21st century? Are we ready to arm ourselves with locally-based, independent and regionally-based analysis? I hope so. The future quality of the lives of young families depend upon it.
