The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season is predicted to be well above-normal, according to all climate forecasters.
Every year several forecasters release predictions, and like spaghetti models during a hurricane, they tend to vary. This year there is not a lot of variation and there are high levels of confidence in the models. Everyone is predicting a strong, above-normal, La Niña-influenced season. The waters from the coast of Africa to the Gulf of Mexico are more than unseasonably warm: they have never been this hot.
The federal forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are “forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.” This is a higher level of confidence than is typical.
Arizona State University’s forecast calls for 21 named storms of which 11 will be hurricanes, including five major hurricanes. Colorado State University (CSU)’s forecast is almost identical with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. Tropical Storm Risk’s (TSR) forecast is 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes and six major hurricanes. The Weather Company (aka Weather Channel) and Atmospheric G2 forecast 24 named storms, including 11 hurricanes and six major storms.
When storms occur, they will be listed in reverse chronological order in this profile, except for the most damaging storms which will be listed first.
(Photo: Hurricane Ida over the Gulf of Mexico approaching Louisiana. (Source: GOES-East NOAA)
Hurricane season predictions and reports can be confusing because most reports include the total number of named storms, a total number of minor hurricanes and a total number of major hurricanes. These numbers can be misleading as tropical storms and hurricanes are both considered to be “named storms” and are included in the total figure for named storms while also being reported separately.
Tropical depressions with winds up to 38 mph, however, are not named and are not included in seasonal storm totals. A tropical depression whose wind speed reaches 39 mph is given a name and reclassified as a tropical storm. Similarly, a tropical storm whose winds exceed 74 mph is reclassified as a hurricane.
For example, if a season has 20 named storms, the total number of hurricanes and tropical storms are included in the total number of named storms (e.g., 4 minor hurricanes + 5 major hurricanes + 11 tropical storms = 20 named storms).
